Special Report N°5/2003

World-wide Energy Demand and Future Investment Requirements

by Marianne Haug,
Director, Energy Efficiency, Technology and R&D
International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is the energy forum for 26 oil-consumer Member countries; their governments are committed to taking joint measures to:

- meet oil supply emergencies;
- share energy information;
- co-ordinate energy policies; and
- co-operate in the development of rational energy programmes.

Chart 1

The projections we shall be looking at today have just been published in the 2002 edition of the IEA's World Energy Outlook. We call it the WEO.

The WEO’s Reference Scenario is a snapshot projection that takes into account only those government policies and measures already enacted, though not necessarily implemented, as of mid-2002. I shall also refer later to an Alternative Policy Scenario for the OECD countries, which assumes adoption of a range of new policies addressing environmental issues and energy security concerns, as well as faster deployment of new energy technologies.

Chart 2

In the Reference Scenario, GDP Growth is expected to be slower in the next three decades in all regions except the transition economies and Africa.

Chart 3

The Broad-Brush Picture for the Coming thirty Years

What are the main messages about energy-sector developments in the next three decades?

 Energy use world-wide will continue to grow – by two-thirds over the next three decades, and fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy mix with a 90% share of the increase in demand.

 Developing countries will fast approach OECD countries as the largest commercial energy users, accounting for nearly two-thirds of growth in energy demand.

 International energy trade will expand enormously.

 Natural gas demand will grow faster than that of other fossil fuels, but not as fast as demand for renewables.

 Transport will dominate growth in oil use and constitute the fastest growing consumer of primary energy.

 Electricity use will double worldwide.

 But, serious concerns exist about:

- security of energy supply
- investment in energy infrastructure
- threats of environment damage
- the populations still lacking modern energy.

Chart 4

So, let us look at some of the statistics for energy-demand growth world-wide up till 2030.

Chart 5


Demand is projected to grow by 1.7% per annum from 2000 to 2030, slower than over the past three decades. But, at 15.3 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, the world’s energy needs will nevertheless be two-thirds greater than today.

Gas consumption grows fastest in absolute terms, non-hydro renewables fastest in percentage terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030.

Chart 6

For learning more please send us an E-mail and you will get the complete statement.
mailto:gmtn@messe-duesseldorf.de






Download Powerpoint Presentation